2025 Investment Innovation Conference: Where does Canada fit in an era of anti-globalization?

The current moment is influenced by changing ideas, marked by the rise and fall of globalization, Sean Speer said during the opening keynote at the Canadian Investment Review’s 2025 Investment Innovation Conference.

He pointed out earlier turning points, including the 1970s stagflation, the elections of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, and the end of the Cold War. These events sped up global economic integration. He also mentioned Canada’s Royal Commission in the early 1980s, which looked at significant economic and geopolitical changes.

“It was a time of increasing U.S. protectionism and several other dynamics that closely resemble what we face today,” he said.

One of the main recommendations from the commission was for Canada to seek free trade with the U.S., which laid the foundation for the 1988 Free Trade Agreement. Speer noted that this agreement sparked hundreds of free trade deals worldwide and led to a sharp rise in global trade. Today, trade between Canada and the U.S. exceeds one trillion dollars each year, while global trade has nearly doubled since the early 1980s.

While discussions about globalization often center on goods and capital, Speer highlighted the significance of the movement of people. Global migration reached over 300 million in 2024, roughly double the levels seen in 1990.

These trends help explain the rise of populism and increasing anti-globalization sentiment, he said, pointing to the China “shock” and the 2008–09 global financial crisis as key factors.

“The overall effect is a shift from a pro-globalization consensus to a new focus in American politics that is fundamentally anti-globalization.”

Speer warned against blaming this shift solely on Donald Trump, arguing that U.S. protectionism is likely to continue regardless of the administration. He predicts future U.S. governments will act in a more self-interested, transactional way, becoming less predictable in global markets.

Any tariff arrangement that Canada ultimately faces may become the new normal, creating a troubling situation for a trade-dependent economy where exports make up roughly one-third of GDP.

In response, Speer suggested Canada consider a type of economic nationalism centered on competitiveness. This would mean protecting capital formation and talent while pursuing a much more aggressive economic agenda.

“It’s not enough for Canadian tax rates to just match those in the U.S. We need to be significantly more competitive to offset ongoing American tariffs on Canadian exports.”

He called for lower and flatter personal income taxes, more aggressive corporate tax structures similar to Ireland’s model, and reforms to capital taxation to encourage investment, entrepreneurship, and long-term growth in Canada.

He also urged policymakers to focus on business formation and entrepreneurship, making Canada more appealing for companies to locate, invest, and hire.

“If we can create more value domestically through market forces, we can lessen the inevitable harms from changes in global trade and investment,” Speer concluded.

He added that safeguarding Canada’s prosperity will demand much greater ambition and truly radical thinking to ensure businesses and investors can continue to create value in an increasingly unstable global economy.